Research & Working Papers

Population aging is becoming an increasingly important global issue, generating substantial economic challenges. In response, many countries have begun to consider immigration as a potential policy solution. Yet, although population aging is likely to increase the political importance of immigration both now and in the coming decades, less is known about how native populations respond to incoming immigrants in aging societies. Understanding these attitudes is particularly important given that the success of immigration policies depends largely on public support. This review brings together research on the economic challenges of population aging, immigrants’ contributions to addressing these challenges, and immigration attitudes in aging societies—areas of research that have largely developed independently across disciplines. Overall, the emerging evidence suggests that population aging often shifts public opinion in a more pro-immigration direction, particularly when immigrants’ potential contributions to the national economy are made salient. However, future research should more systematically examine generational differences and subnational variation in immigration attitudes, as well as whether the effects of population aging vary across institutional and economic contexts and with individuals’ socioeconomic characteristics and perceptions of population aging.

While immigration is often proposed as a solution to demographic challenges such as aging population, little research has examined whether and how aging population shapes immigration attitudes. Using an original survey experiment in South Korea, this study examines whether aging population affects support for immigration and how these effects vary across individuals’ perceptions of its economic and fiscal consequences. We find that exposure to information about population aging increases support for immigration in general. However, these effects are conditional: older individuals and those who view the elderly population as less burdensome are more likely to see immigrants as contributors and express greater support for immigration. These findings help explain persistent variation in immigration attitudes across aging societies, where demographic arguments often fail to generate broad support, by highlighting heterogeneity in how individual interpret the challenges of aging population and cautioning against assumptions of uniform public responses to population aging.

Growing research highlights that population aging and the aging electorate are increasing older voters' political influence in many democracies, yet little is known about how younger citizens' democratic attitudes respond to these demographic changes. Using a nationally representative survey experiment in Japan, this research note examines how younger citizens react to information about older cohorts' growing political influence. Although the treatment has no significant average effect, it reduces democratic satisfaction and perceived government responsiveness among economically vulnerable and politically disengaged younger citizens. These findings suggest that population aging does not broadly undermine democratic attitudes but instead disproportionately affects younger citizens with fewer economic and political resources, highlighting the importance of more inclusive political representation in aging democracies.

Against the backdrop of a global trend toward autocratization driven by political leaders, this study investigates whether undemocratic events produce transnational spillover effects on foreign citizens’ support for authoritarian governance. We focus on the short-lived declaration of martial law in South Korea in December 2024 to assess whether and how this event influenced authoritarian attitudes among Japanese citizens. Drawing on longitudinal survey data collected immediately before and after the incident, we find that, while the event had no statistically significant effect on average, it increased authoritarian attitudes among politically conservative Japanese respondents. These findings suggest that authoritarian events can generate social contagion, leading individuals to update their attitudes in line with political developments abroad. However, in this case, this contagion effect appears transient, as the elevated authoritarian attitudes dissipated within three weeks of the event.

Partisan media increasingly engage in ideologically aligned coverage across many issue areas, yet less is known about how they report on major democratic crises. While such moments may encourage partisan outlets to defend ideologically aligned actors, they also expose them to heightened scrutiny from broader audiences, raising reputational costs for bias. Empirical tests of these competing hypotheses are rare due to endogeneity and the typically ambiguous nature of antidemocratic behavior. Leveraging South Korea’s unexpected December 3, 2024, martial law declaration as a clear episode of antidemocratic behavior, this study examines partisan media coverage during a high-salience crisis. Analyzing 9,655 articles from two conservative and two liberal outlets over a four-week period using keyword analysis, structural topic modeling, and LLM-based aspect sentiment analysis, we find substantial evidence of media partisanship. Liberal outlets were more likely to project citizen criticism, while conservative outlets more often blamed the opposition and downplayed public concern. We also find limited evidence that conservative media adopted more negative portrayals of the incumbent party after the event. Overall, media partisanship persisted, primarily through framing, agenda setting, and evaluative language. These results have important implications for understanding the role of partisan media in democratic accountability.

Japan has experienced prolonged population aging and has long been viewed as a country in need of immigration. However, despite this structural demand and repeated government efforts to promote more open immigration, public support has remained limited, and anti- immigrant sentiment continues to persist. This persistent resistance to immigration remains insufficiently examined, even as demographic pressures intensify and many citizens recog- nize that immigration could help address these challenges. This study highlights an often- overlooked dimension: the unequal distribution of the burdens associated with population aging. Prior research suggests that individuals who perceive their group as disadvantaged relative to others, particularly when they view this disadvantage as unfair or undeserved, are more likely to express hostility toward outsiders. Consistent with this perspective, a survey experiment in Japan demonstrates that immigration-based appeals can generate backlash among individuals who believe that population aging disproportionately disadvantages them. Departing from the existing literature, which emphasizes the pro-immigration effects of sociotropic appeals, this paper finds that population aging and pro-immigration rhetoric may instead increase opposition to immigration among individuals who perceive themselves as disproportionately burdened by population aging. These findings suggest that addressing the vulnerabilities of those who feel left behind may be just as important as emphasizing the collective benefits of immigration.